First Manchester

[motormayhem1]

RE: First Manchester

(13/05/2019 23:56)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Looks like its a possibility as the shareholders are grumbling about no dividend for over ten years so the only way for the new owners the venture capitalists to solve this is to literally liquidise the company by selling assets off, so there is nothing left. Certainly looks like the business will split into two UK Bus and American Bus which will be split, the new owners don't want railways, they recon that is causing large scale losses amongst UK franchisee's and that there is nothing to be gained from running them any longer. So presume rail franchises would be returned to UK Government PLC.

I have always thought banks thinking they know how to run any company is a mistake all they want is the loans paying off, FirstGroup's biggest mistake was buying the USA operations which had been on the brink of bankruptcy many times under several different owners, for god sake Greyhounds had its day, just take the dog to the vets and put it down literally. In other words "close it down" UK Bus operations should off been bread and butter not secondary to other things, with no diversion of management time to other things. UK buses in big Cities should be making healthy profits, not losses and certainly (Aberdeen) the buses shouldn't be making a loss outside the head office door. How can a Chief Exec miss that???? the divisional director should have been fired. Or is it simply the wrong managers are with the wrong fleets??? eg would the owner of Blue Bus's son not have been better running buses in Bolton? rather than Scotland.

I would say looks like FirstGroup's situation is now more critical than Arriva's tonight.

The difference between arriva and firsts situation is arriva are still making healthy profits where as first arnt.
Plus arriva's situation is to do with the parent company rather than the arriva brand as its DB in Germany thats acquiring the debt due to keep trying to improve the railways in there home land.

[Gillmoss 0324]

RE: First Manchester
Just a thought could the Bolton and Oldham depot's be gradually wound down instead of sold with the likes of Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Arriva, Rotala, Transdev Blazefield etc. can pick over the routes in these area's they want? It could by-pass any CC interest and First don't look too eager to sell them on unlike they did with Queens Road?

Generally I think First's days are numbered and they'll gradually sell or wind down their UK bus operations but some of these - Glasgow, Yorkshire, Bristol etc. would have potential for new owners/someone else wanting to take over in those regions.

[motormayhem1]

RE: First Manchester

(14/05/2019 07:53)Gillmoss 0324 Wrote:  Just a thought could the Bolton and Oldham depot's be gradually wound down instead of sold with the likes of Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Arriva, Rotala, Transdev Blazefield etc. can pick over the routes in these area's they want? It could by-pass any CC interest and First don't look too eager to sell them on unlike they did with Queens Road?

Generally I think First's days are numbered and they'll gradually sell or wind down their UK bus operations but some of these - Glasgow, Yorkshire, Bristol etc. would have potential for new owners/someone else wanting to take over in those regions.

I beleive there was a buyout deal in place for bolton but collapsed on the 11th hour but not sure on the reason why.

[Gillmoss 0324]

RE: First Manchester
Thanks MM

[WhiteVanMan]

RE: First Manchester

(13/05/2019 21:37)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Think no further repaints though as if you see my post elsewhere its not just Manchester no under threat but everything as an American Hedge Fund looks like its going to swoop on it and then break it up and sell it.

Is that why First Cymru, and First Eastern Counties, currently repainting their buses?

[Owl]

RE: First Manchester

(14/05/2019 07:53)Gillmoss 0324 Wrote:  Just a thought could the Bolton and Oldham depot's be gradually wound down instead of sold with the likes of Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Arriva, Rotala, Transdev Blazefield etc. can pick over the routes in these area's they want? It could by-pass any CC interest and First don't look too eager to sell them on unlike they did with Queens Road?

Generally I think First's days are numbered and they'll gradually sell or wind down their UK bus operations but some of these - Glasgow, Yorkshire, Bristol etc. would have potential for new owners/someone else wanting to take over in those regions.

First certainly seems to be running Oldham down. In my experience some of the sevices have been poor for some time, and now they have let the 149 and 415 go to stagecoach.

[gilesbus1]

RE: First Manchester
Oldham is the big loss maker out of the three, yet the only one there they have a mere monopoly, seems to me that they have been badly hit with the introduction and expansion of Metrolink services there. Manchester was obviously the big catch to be made as that went first of all. Bolton is complicated with the Vantage situation in a number of ways, first of all Vantage can't be sold to another operator under TfGM rules or the contract has to be handed back to TfGM and re-let seperately, but without it is Bolton all that good. Also the complexity of the Bid for Green Bus funding and new buses for the 582 ment the recharging facilities between the Vantage and 582 had to be shared under the terms of the bid, so if the 582 is not operated by First both the 582 and Vantage would likely lose there money for Electric Buses, can't see TfGM being happy about that, so I think Bolton might be in the situation were it has to remain with FirstGroup until FirstGroup are no more along with the 582, or until the franchise comes to an end.

As for elsewhere, there is an American Venture Capital Company trying to buy out shares, they went from 8% to 10% yesterday, and there is unhappiness amongst shareholders as they have now han no dividend for 10 years or so, so this company says it will continue to buy shares and once it has control will insist on the sacking of 7 of the 12 board members including the Chief Executive and will bring in its own board members, it wants to squeeze money out of the business like any Venture Capitalist owned company does, it only appears interested long term in the American arm of the business and would split the business in two and pull out of rail as it believes rail is the issue causing problem now for all the groups and that rail franchises are unable to raise enough profit now. UK Buses no doubt would be sold on maybe to a UK venture capitalist who would no doub't then start dismantling the business and selling parts onwards for the other players to try to buy. Shutting business' down though is not a good option what they will look for is to sell on, maybe closing depots along the way in various regions and maybe winding down the odd operation as per Barnstaple and Northampton. Oldham would be a big candidate for that, as would the likes of Livingston, Bracknell etc... Then there is the offer from Aberdeen City Council that has been previously dismissed by FirstGroup to acquire First Aberdeen and take it back into there ownership, in Scotland it may be possible for that to happen.

Bristol operations now also look to be starting to come apart with driver and vehicle shortages around last Christmas that gave them much bad publicity.

My own feeling in regards to Greater Manchester operations is that the Bolton set up will pass eventually either to Stagecoach or Rotala and the Oldham set up will close down, the Vantage will separately probably end up with Stagecoach along with the 582.

In the case of Stagecoach it would need to be new company separate from Manchester controlling both Wigan and Bolton depots set up, perhaps Stagecoach Wigan Ltd or Greater Manchester Buses West Ltd or something like that with no day to day management link between the two, it might also be probable was that to happen that Preston operations would also be managed by this rather than Glenvale as per now, that would allow Chorley outstation to close and vehicles for the 125 to move to Bolton depot. The separation of Wigan would then allow Stagecoach Manchester to cherry pick though the remains of the Oldham operations along with GoAhead.

[Raawwwrrr!]

RE: First Manchester
Complete speculation.

[iMarkeh]

RE: First Manchester
They did drop quite a few evening runs from Bolton Depot last month so possibly it is a case of hanging on to what they really want and dropping the rest. Oldham also lost the 58 but First won the route at tender so it didn't look as bad but technically, it is one less commercial route.

I think that more companies should be jumping forward to take on First routes. I think they are worried if they start going for routes, First will retaliate by flooding the routes (The only way First compete). I think until Stagecoach, Rotala and other companies wake up and see how bad of a state First is in, the routes will just keep plodding on and being gradually reduced and put out to tender.

I am struggling to see how First are making such big losses. IF it doesn't make money, why would they keep running it. Is it a case of depot costs and not the physical routes making the company loss making. Things like too many managers on high pay, too many mechanics, high fuel cost and the depots having high land costs.

[Mayneway]

RE: First Manchester

(14/05/2019 19:15)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Oldham is the big loss maker out of the three, yet the only one there they have a mere monopoly, seems to me that they have been badly hit with the introduction and expansion of Metrolink services there. Manchester was obviously the big catch to be made as that went first of all. Bolton is complicated with the Vantage situation in a number of ways, first of all Vantage can't be sold to another operator under TfGM rules or the contract has to be handed back to TfGM and re-let seperately, but without it is Bolton all that good. Also the complexity of the Bid for Green Bus funding and new buses for the 582 ment the recharging facilities between the Vantage and 582 had to be shared under the terms of the bid, so if the 582 is not operated by First both the 582 and Vantage would likely lose there money for Electric Buses, can't see TfGM being happy about that, so I think Bolton might be in the situation were it has to remain with FirstGroup until FirstGroup are no more along with the 582, or until the franchise comes to an end.

As for elsewhere, there is an American Venture Capital Company trying to buy out shares, they went from 8% to 10% yesterday, and there is unhappiness amongst shareholders as they have now han no dividend for 10 years or so, so this company says it will continue to buy shares and once it has control will insist on the sacking of 7 of the 12 board members including the Chief Executive and will bring in its own board members, it wants to squeeze money out of the business like any Venture Capitalist owned company does, it only appears interested long term in the American arm of the business and would split the business in two and pull out of rail as it believes rail is the issue causing problem now for all the groups and that rail franchises are unable to raise enough profit now. UK Buses no doubt would be sold on maybe to a UK venture capitalist who would no doub't then start dismantling the business and selling parts onwards for the other players to try to buy. Shutting business' down though is not a good option what they will look for is to sell on, maybe closing depots along the way in various regions and maybe winding down the odd operation as per Barnstaple and Northampton. Oldham would be a big candidate for that, as would the likes of Livingston, Bracknell etc... Then there is the offer from Aberdeen City Council that has been previously dismissed by FirstGroup to acquire First Aberdeen and take it back into there ownership, in Scotland it may be possible for that to happen.

Bristol operations now also look to be starting to come apart with driver and vehicle shortages around last Christmas that gave them much bad publicity.

My own feeling in regards to Greater Manchester operations is that the Bolton set up will pass eventually either to Stagecoach or Rotala and the Oldham set up will close down, the Vantage will separately probably end up with Stagecoach along with the 582.

In the case of Stagecoach it would need to be new company separate from Manchester controlling both Wigan and Bolton depots set up, perhaps Stagecoach Wigan Ltd or Greater Manchester Buses West Ltd or something like that with no day to day management link between the two, it might also be probable was that to happen that Preston operations would also be managed by this rather than Glenvale as per now, that would allow Chorley outstation to close and vehicles for the 125 to move to Bolton depot. The separation of Wigan would then allow Stagecoach Manchester to cherry pick though the remains of the Oldham operations along with GoAhead.

Where's the evidence that Oldham is running at a loss?
I find it hard to believe. I'm not saying things there are rosy but there's no way that management would simply close up shop and allow other operators to pick up there dropped services etc.
Metrolink will have had an impact but I think theu still carry good loads from Piccadilly on a daily basis.

I would imagine Oldham would be the last to be sold anyway.